Kamaru Usman Backs Merab at UFC 333

Kamaru Usman expects Merab Dvalishvili’s pace and wrestling to decide the UFC 333 bantamweight title fight with Petr Yan. During a discussion with Henry Cejudo, the former welterweight champion backed Dvalishvili to repeat the pressure that carried him to a five-round decision over Yan in March 2023. Cejudo challenged the confidence of that prediction, reflecting how much Yan’s position has changed since their first meeting.

Usman’s pick is an analysis, not a guarantee. Yan enters as champion after winning the title at UFC 323, while Dvalishvili has already shown that his activity can deny Yan the time he normally uses to build reads. UFC 333 will test whether the same style produces the same control now that both men have more information about the matchup.

Usman Trusts Pressure Over Precision

Yan is most dangerous when he can study an opponent, adjust his guard and begin punishing repeated patterns. Dvalishvili disrupted that process in their first fight by changing levels, forcing clinches and maintaining a pace that made every reset temporary. Usman believes those habits remain the central advantage. He expects the challenger to make Yan work before the champion can establish the measured striking exchanges he prefers.

Activity also informs Usman’s pick. Dvalishvili has competed regularly against leading bantamweights, while Yan has spent more time outside the cage between major assignments. Ring time does not automatically make one fighter sharper, and rest can help an experienced champion prepare. Usman’s argument is that Dvalishvili’s style benefits particularly from constant competition because timing repeated entries under fatigue is central to his success.

Yan has offered context for the first result by saying he damaged his right hand. That can explain part of his difficulty without erasing Dvalishvili’s performance. Injuries occur inside fights, and the official decision still reflects five rounds in which Dvalishvili imposed more of his preferred work. The rematch gives Yan a chance to show what changes when he is healthy and prepared for the same pressure from the opening minute.

Yan Needs More Than a Cleaner First Round

A better start would help the champion, but the deeper challenge is sustainable defense. Stopping one takedown does not end Dvalishvili’s sequence. Yan must exit the clinch safely, return to striking range and punish the next entry without spending so much energy that his reactions slow. Body work and controlled counters may matter more than loading up on a single response.

Dvalishvili also has adjustments to make. Yan has years of footage from the first fight and understands the pace he will face. Repeating entries without changing the setup could allow the champion to time knees, uppercuts or angles away from the fence. The challenger needs the same identity with enough variation to prevent preparation from becoming prediction.

Cejudo’s disagreement adds useful restraint to the discussion. Elite fighters can study the same matchup and value different details. Usman sees a familiar wrestling engine that Yan has already failed to contain. Cejudo gives more weight to the champion’s adaptations and technical ability. The debate is stronger when neither opinion is presented as inside information about the outcome.

The title context raises the stakes but does not change the core mechanics. Yan wants enough quiet time to read and counter. Dvalishvili wants to remove that quiet through volume, entries and clinch work. Whichever man controls the intervals between exchanges will likely control how the judges understand the fight.

• Usman favors Dvalishvili because of the challenger’s pace, wrestling and recent activity.
• Yan says a damaged right hand affected the first fight and now has a full camp to prepare for the rematch.

Usman is backing a style that has already worked once, which makes his pick easy to understand. Yan’s championship form and the chance to prepare specifically make the second fight more than a replay. UFC 333 will decide whether Dvalishvili can again deny the champion time, or whether Yan has learned how to turn relentless pressure into openings of his own.

Sources: MiddleEasy